The storm’s forecast track.
PHILIPSBURG--The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten (MDS) reported Tuesday at 5:00pm that Tropical Storm Dorian was now forecast to pass approximately 142 miles southwest of the island early Wednesday.
Due to this cyclone posing no significant threat to the country, the Emergency Operations Centre (EOC) meeting planned for late Tuesday afternoon was cancelled, the Fire Department/Office of Disaster Management (ODM) had said earlier.
Data from the Guadeloupe radar indicated that the centre of Tropical Storm Dorian was located at 5:00pm Tuesday near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 62.5 West, or about 194 miles south of St. Maarten. It had been moving West-Northwest near 13 miles per hour (mph) (20 kilometres per hour (km/h)) and this motion was expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the Northwest today, Wednesday.
The centre of Tropical Storm Dorian was projected to pass about 142 miles southwest of St. Maarten early Wednesday, and thus posed no significant threat. However, showers, thunderstorms and gusty winds are still possible from the outer bands as the disturbance continues to move across the eastern Caribbean Sea towards Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.
Dorian is the fourth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. ODM reminded the community that we are now in the peak period and everyone should stay vigilant in the coming weeks.
A tropical storm warning was issued on Tuesday for Vieques and Culebra and the US Virgin Islands, while the tropical storm watch for Saba and St. Eustatius was discontinued.
Hurricane watches were in effect for Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, from Isla Saona to Samana.
Tropical storm warnings were in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the US Virgin Islands and the Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana.
Tropical storm watches were in effect for the Dominican Republic, from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque and from Samana to Puerto Plata.
On the forecast track, the centre of Dorian was to move across the Northeast Caribbean Sea, pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico today, Wednesday, and move near or just east of Eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night. On Thursday night and Friday, the centre of Dorian is forecast to move near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeast Bahamas.
Maximum sustained winds remained near 50mph (85km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening was forecast, and Dorian was expected to be near hurricane strength when it approached Puerto Rico.
Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico on Wednesday night, but it is expected to gradually re-strengthen on Thursday and Friday while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and Southeast Bahamas.
Tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 45 miles (75km) from the centre. The estimated minimum central pressure was 1,005 millibars (mb) (29.68 inches).
Dorian was expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations:
Martinique to St. Vincent – 3-6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada – 1-3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica – 1-4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic – 4-6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Virgin Islands and Haiti – 1-3 inches, isolated 4 inches.
Bahamas – 2-4 inches.
Florida – 3-5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
Tropical storm conditions were expected and hurricane conditions possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions were also expected in the US Virgin Islands on Wednesday.
Swells generated by Dorian were forecast to gradually subside in the Lesser Antilles, but increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip-current conditions.
