NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017
...UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...29.0N 97.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NW OF VICTORIA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of Texas from north of Sargent to San Luis Pass.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port O'Connor to Sargent Texas
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Sargent to San Luis Pass Texas
Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is occurring in southeastern Texas, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of this area.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 97.0 West. Harvey is drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slow southeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Harvey is forecast to move off the middle Texas coast on Monday and meander just offshore through Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. Some slight re-strengthening is possible after the center moves off the coast on Monday night and Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily over water to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area. These rains are currently producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding, and flash flood emergencies are in effect for portions of southeastern Texas.
DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.
Elsewhere, Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches farther south into the middle Texas coast, farther west toward the Texas Hill Country, and farther east across south-central Louisiana.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port Aransas to Morgan City including Galveston Bay...1 to 3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near the area of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in an area near the center of Harvey and over portions of the tropical storm warning area along the coast. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist in areas of onshore flow within the warning area during the next day or so. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night.
SURF: Swells generated by Harvey are affecting the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday near the upper Texas coast and into far southwest Louisiana.
