NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week. Further development will become less likely by the end of the week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have become slightly better organized since yesterday. Some further development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the Windward Islands
should monitor the progress of the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Hagen/Brown
