Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

Tropical Weather Outlook 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Sam, located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered a couple hundred miles east of Bermuda is associated with a formative surface low interacting with an upper-level trough. Additional tropical or subtropical development of this system could occur through early Saturday as it moves generally north-northwestward. After that time, development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system, the remnants of Odette, is located a little less than 600 miles west-northwest of the westernmost Azores. Showers and thunderstorms remain limited near the low, and the window of opportunity for this system to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone is closing as strong upper-level winds are expected to develop over the system later today. This system will move generally south-southeastward over the next day or two. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by the end of this weekend. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin