NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has changed little this morning. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands have become slightly better organized. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
3. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Bucci/Pasch
