Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near the Texas/Louisiana border.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days.  This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves north-northwestward to northward off the southeast U.S. coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts later this week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

two_atl_5d0.pngA tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa in a day or two. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development while the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi