...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Tropical Storm Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...15.5N 74.9W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Jamaica has issued a Hurricane Watch for the island, and has upgraded the Tropi-cal Storm Watch to a warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, condi-tions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Melis-sa.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteor-
ological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve re-connaissance aircraft near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 74.9 West. Melissa is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northwest or north motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a westward turn over the weekend. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move closer to Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti during the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but significant strengthening is expected by late Friday and over the weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti and Jamaica beginning on Fri-day afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica earlier on Friday.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is possible beyond Sunday; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are possible.
Across Puerto Rico, northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain is expected through Sunday. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecaster Papin
