NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent water areas are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development when the system moves over the Bay of Campeche tonight, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to spread westward across Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so. Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
2. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad trough of low pressure near the northwestern Bahamas remains limited. Any development of this system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward, and then turns northwestward or northward near Florida and the adjacent waters.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development by the weekend when the system begins to move northeastward over the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Blake
