NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gert, located several hundred miles west of Bermuda.
1. An elongated area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, crossing into the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
Environmental conditions appear somewhat supportive of tropical cyclone formation over the next few days but should become less favorable once the system moves into the Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. A second area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is also producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some slow development of this system over the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
3. A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Conditions appear conducive for some development after that time while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Berg
