PHILIPSBURG--Department of Statistics STAT told The Daily Herald in an invited comment that it stands by its 2011 National Census resident population figure, and that it has not received any updates from the Civil Registry Department (CRD) concerning the status or outcome of a comparative analysis and the cleaning of its database.
The 2011 STAT count had been disputed because of a large gap between its count of 33,609, and that of the CRD, which was about 21,000 more.
STAT then carried out a Household Listing Survey (HLS) in 2014, which it said served to validate the 2011 figure, as both exercises showed a "very similar" trend in the relative distribution of the various age groups/sex, and a continued aging trend of the population.
"In relative terms, they were extremely close," said Department Head Makini Hickinson. The HLS results – which showed a 3,600-person increase over the three years since the census – "reconfirmed that the population resident on Dutch St. Maarten is much lower than public opinion, as well as that of the registered population at CRD." The HLS population count was 37,224.
The HLS results were released in July 2014, and the results of the 2011 National Census were released in digital format on STAT's website shortly afterward. The various figures can be browsed per topic at www.stat.gov.sx.
Up to that time, the 2011 census figures were always referred to as "preliminary results."
CRD then agreed in 2014 to conduct a comparative analysis and further continue with cleaning efforts of its database, STAT said in response to this newspaper pointing out the still-significant gap between the two counts.
STAT's most up-to-date population estimate is that of January 1, 2015, at 38,247 persons. This figure is estimated based on the 2014 result, adjusted for births, deaths and registered migration figures from CRD up to that date.
When releasing the 2014 population figures, STAT stated that a key contributing factor to the general perception of a much higher population number was the buoyant tourism industry. The Department cited 1st quarter of 2014 visitor arrival statistics as translating to an average of 9,900 tourists per day.
Questions sent to the CRD on Wednesday had not been answered by press time.
