NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the central tropical Atlantic.
1. A large area of disturbed weather over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is a associated with a surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. Although this activity is showing signs of organization, there are no signs of a surface circulation. Limited development is anticipated today, but upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form on Thursday or Friday while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Forecaster Avila
