NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Jerry, located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico.
- A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized, environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
- A broad area of low pressure centered near the eastern tip of Cuba continues to produce only disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly west-northwestward during the next couple of days due to strong upper-level winds and interaction with land. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba through the weekend, potentially causing flash flooding and mudslides in areas of high terrain.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
- A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Sunday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
