...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN POR-TIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
500 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.0N 75.5W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the
Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for...
* Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince
* Jamaica
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, condi-tions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba should monitor the progress
of Melissa. A hurricane warning may be required for Jamaica later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteor-ological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
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At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West. Melissa is nearly stationary, but a slow drift toward the northeast and north is expected later today and tonight. A westward drift is then forecast to begin on Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or just south of Jamaica early next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid intensification this weekend. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the east of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area in Haiti on Saturday and Jamaica be-ginning late Saturday or Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Haiti later today and in Jamaica on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring 8 to 14 inches of rain to southern Dominican Republic, south-ern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Sunday night, with locally higher amounts possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Sunday night; however, uncertainty in Melissa’s track and forward speed reduces confidence in exact totals. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected in the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica, with catastrophic flash flooding and landslides anticipated in southern Haiti.
Across northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 3 to 5 inches of rain are expected through Sunday night. Flash and urban flooding will be possible through Sunday night. Flooding impacts may increase across western Jamaica next week.
STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica by Saturday in areas of on-shore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a potential risk of a more significant storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, early next week. Due to Melissa's slow motion and large forecast uncertainty, it is still too soon to know exactly how
high the storm surge could reach.
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecaster Berg
