DATE ISSUED: Sunday, 25 August, 2019 TIME: 2:30PM (18:30UTC)
At 2:00 pm today the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 53.4 West, or about 790 miles southeast of St. Maarten. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the Eastern Caribbean sea on Tuesday. However, the center of Tropical Storm Dorian is projected to pass about 217 miles south of St. Maarten early Wednesday, and thus currently poses no immediate threat.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
Meteorological Department St. Maarten will continue to monitor this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
FORECASTER: Albert
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019
...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...11.3N 53.4W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Additional watches or warnings could be issued later today for portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 53.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
