ASTANA/MOSCOW--Peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition in Kazakhstan were a coup for their international sponsors, but exposed the limits of what Russia, Turkey and Iran can achieve in their efforts to resolve the six-year-old war.
It was the first time in nine months the two sides had come together, albeit briefly and unhappily, and the first time that Moscow, Ankara and Tehran had presided over such talks, with the United States only present as an observer. The fact that the talks happened at all was a diplomatic coup that underlined the three countries' growing Middle East clout and Washington's diminished influence at a time when Donald Trump is settling into the presidency.
The head of the Russian delegation, Alexander Lavrentyev, hailed the talks, held in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, as the "birth" of a new negotiating format, and there were hopes they might make it more likely that U.N.-brokered talks could take place in Geneva next month. At the end of two chaotic days, Moscow, Ankara and Tehran backed a shaky Dec. 30 truce between Syria's warring parties and agreed to monitor its compliance.
Yet negotiations did not go to plan, showing that the three would-be Syria conflict brokers, in their different ways, all have credibility problems. This suggests they may have to involve Washington and the Gulf States more fully if they are to have any chance of brokering a final deal.
That could be difficult as the talks spotlighted sharp differences between Moscow and Tehran over the possible future participation of the United States, in particular. State media in Iran cited Iranian officials as saying any future U.S. involvement was unacceptable, while Lavrentyev, the main Russian negotiator, said Moscow would welcome Washington joining the process.
"They (the Russians) can now see how difficult their partners are," said one Western diplomat.
In previous rounds of U.N. talks in Geneva, Moscow had not been able to call the shots in the way it could in Kazakhstan, the diplomat said, because the United States and the West had succeeded in diluting its role. This time, Moscow had its first taste of what it is like to be in the hot seat.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had previously lamented the failure of U.N.-backed talks in Geneva, calling them "fruitless sitting around". Lavrentyev, Russia's chief negotiator in Astana, put a positive gloss on the Kazakh talks but did not hide the diplomatic difficulties either, complaining at different times about how tough the discussions were.
Western envoys, who turned up informally to observe developments from the corridors of the hotel, mingled with reporters to try to ascertain what the purpose of the meeting was. There was much speculation about whether Russia wanted a follow-up meeting that would go into the details of what was in the end a vague final communiqué.
"Frankly, we’re baffled. Why is Russia doing this now? What has changed for them that they want to disengage militarily and engage politically?" said one diplomat.
Western envoys congregated in the lobby of the Rixos, the talks venue, as snow fell outside and could be heard debating whether to try the local horsemeat specialities in the hotel’s Irish pub, where clouds of cigarette smoked filled the air. At one point, on Monday evening, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry began searching for guides willing to show the rebels around local shopping malls after apparently being told that the opposition wanted to pick up some bargains.
Back at the talks, rebels and Western diplomats questioned the role of Iran and its allies. "The Russians have moved from a stage of being a party in the fighting and are now exerting efforts to become a guarantor. They are finding a lot of obstacles from (Lebanon's Shi'ite) Hezbollah forces, Iran and the regime," said Mohammed Alloush, the head of the Syrian opposition delegation.
Western diplomats said they too saw Iran as one of the main obstacles to progress with one saying Tehran's commitment to the ceasefire and a political transition was uncertain.
Moscow said it had given the rebels the draft of a new constitution, drawn up by Russian specialists, to speed agreement on a political transition. It was unclear however what the document said or what the rebels thought of it.
The talks yielded a joint communique from Russia, Turkey and Iran which pledged to create a monitoring mechanism to police Syria's patchy ceasefire, but the rebels did not endorse it. Instead, they submitted a separate proposal on the ceasefire and questioned Iran's legitimacy as a broker at a time when they said Iranian militias were breaching the ceasefire. The communique legitimised Iran's "bloodletting" in Syria, complained Alloush, and did not address the role of Shi'ite militias fighting the rebels.
Nor did the rebels, who for the first time were represented by military rather than just political figures, show any signs of watering down their demand that President Bashar al-Assad step down as soon as possible, something Damascus won't accept.
