Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located several hundred miles southwest of Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Gaston, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Azores.

Southeastern Caribbean Sea:

reg2.pngShowers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although

upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that time. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over the central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia later this evening.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Showers and thunderstorms located near the west coast of Africa are associated with a tropical wave that has emerged over the warm waters of the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

East Central Tropical Atlantic:

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce

disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite marginal environmental conditions, some slow development of this system is

possible over the next several days while it moves slowly northwestward or northward over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

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