Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Fiona, located northeast of the southeastern Bahamas, and on

Tropical Storm Gaston, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean.

1. Western Tropical Atlantic:

two_atl_5d0.pngA tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity a couple hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The

system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later this week. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while the system moves slowly northward, between west Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

3. East Central Tropical Atlantic:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite a dry environment, slow development of this system is possible over the next several days as it moves northwestward and then westward over the tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

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