Comparisons of three different data sources on tourism expenditure.
PHILIPSBURG--Tourism expenditure on the Dutch Side of St. Maarten may be significantly over-reported, according to analysis by the St. Maarten Hospitality and Trade Association (SHTA).
SHTA said based on available data, it estimates that the Central Bank of Curaçao and St Maarten (CBCS) has over-reported travel exports by 800 million XCG, the equivalent of roughly 18,000 XCG per resident.
“If that 800 million is not produced, that means less jobs, less income, less funds for investments, less taxes and social security fees. In short it means a lot less economic activity,” SHTA stated.
SHTA said its conclusion is based on comparisons of three different data sources on tourism expenditure: the Tourism Expenditure Survey (TES), CBCS balance of payments reports, and occupancy-based calculations using country budget, TES data, and travel party size.
The TES provides yearly data on average daily expenditure (ADE) and arrivals, with the latest report available for 2023. Using the formula “Visitors x Length of stay x ADE = expenditure,” projections for 2024 can be calculated. CBCS, which reports tourism expenditure under the line item “travel exports” in its balance of payments reports, relies on STAT for this figure and applies the same methodology.
By comparison, SHTA applied TES data on expenditure and occupancy, noting that visitors spend 55 to 60 percent of their expenditure on accommodations. This approach allows tourism expenditure to be estimated from accommodation revenue.
According to SHTA, the CBCS-reported totals are “significantly higher” than figures supported by survey or occupancy data. The association further noted that of the data presented as stay-over visitors, only 72 percent appear to be staying in accommodations on the Dutch Side, and only 55 percent in Dutch Side hotels and resorts.
“The private sector relies on authorities to produce accurate and timely statistics. It is impossible to run a company if you don’t know what your revenue is; the same counts on a country level. With the current large differences in economic output statistics, it is seemingly impossible to design befitting economic policies like tax and social security reform,” SHTA stated.
This is the third part of SHTA’s review of available facts regarding independent vacation rentals and the performance of the tourism industry on Sint Maarten
