The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season starts today and judging from the latest reports it could be a pretty active one. Only last week meteorologists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) saw a 45 per cent chance of an “above normal” season, compared to a “near normal” (35 per cent) or “below normal” (20 per cent) season.
With a 70 per cent likelihood of 11 to 17 named storms, of which of five to nine could become hurricanes, including two to four major ones, the outlook is well above the average of 12, six and three respectively.
Last year saw 15 named storms, including seven hurricanes of which four were major. In early April private forecaster AccuWeather had mentioned about 10, five and three respectively for 2017.
The truth is that nobody really knows how many tropical systems will form and their strength, but also exactly what path they will take. The latter is obviously crucial, because a shift of a few degrees in any direction makes quite a difference.
Like always, the smart money is on preparing for the worst. It must be said, the annual pre-hurricane clearing of drains and ditches started early this year, which was not always the case in the past.
Still, judging by the nuisance that resulted from Monday’s rains one would have to conclude that the water runoff could be better. One tip is to open the Great Bay outlet for Fresh Pond and turn on the pumps leading from Great Salt Pond to Rolandus Channel earlier, to prevent rather than relieve flooding of the surrounding areas.
As for residents, the advice by the Office of Disaster Management (ODM) to get a five-day emergency supply kit ready per person from now is well-taken. Trimming trees and cleaning up loose-lying debris are also recommendable to protect not just one’s own home and family, but also others in the neighbourhood from what can become dangerous projectiles in heavy winds.
Better safe than sorry.
