Dear Editor,
The conversation on Sint Maarten in respect of recovery from Hurricane Irma seems to focus on personal resilience, community togetherness and a positive spirit. Whilst not wishing to undervalue these aspects of society, there is a distinct lack of attention to what makes the island’s economy function and life remain sustainable.
There is only one crucial question that needs to be answered if we are to minimize the inevitable pain and suffering that will result from economic decline. That question is how do we get the resources and capital in the economy functioning as best as possible, as fast as possible? That is largely a technical economic question that requires to be attended to, at least in some part by the government, ideally in collaboration with the private sector.
The most recent coalition made it abundantly clear that it was not a question that they were particularly interested in. They had never paid much attention in spite of appointing Ministers who had the task in name. The new short-term majority is clearly more interested in the subject but who knows who will be taking on the enormous responsibility after the February election?
In order to get the economy growing, those entities which drive the economy must be in place and functioning. Without hotels, for instance, the airport will not be profitable. Without tourists the restaurants will not be profitable. Without tourists, taxis will have no business. Without taxis having revenues, the supermarkets will be making less money. With nobody making money the government gets much less. These are called linkages.
In order to get the economy growing as fast as possible, someone needs to understand the linkages described. This party needs to not only have authority and government power but they must have the foresight to focus on the most strategic linkages in place of a focus that will only bring in votes in the short term.
If that party is the UPP or DP then we can at least be sure that they have an interest and familiarity with how the economy works, something that was not evident from the ministers appointed in the last coalition.
At the same time it must be noted that the challenge post Irma is significantly different to any challenge that any of the UPP or DP leaders have faced before. The reduction in functioning productive elements in country Sint Maarten is significantly less than was the case post Luis. The cost of running the public sector is significantly greater, especially since the advent of the constitutional status of 10-10-10. The deficit that will be accumulated in the long decision-less period since hurricane Irma and the beginning of a possible new coalition period will be substantial.
There is a great need for an economic policy that is driven by strong understanding of the calamity economy and considerable courage to match the tough circumstances.
What happens if the economy does not come back ? This is a significant possibility.
Here are some factors that will play on this scenario:
*The longer decision-making operates slowly the greater the chance of ultimate return to full production of the economy exists.
* Unless Dutch funding is aimed directly at getting the productive activity going, the less chance of it ever getting there.
* The CFT is going to be confronted with an impossible situation.
* When Country Sint Maarten runs out of money in say 2 years’ time it is still only going to be the Dutch that we will be able to turn to.
* Whilst the Dutch have now leveraged their position in law and order issues, at this later date they will exercise it in economic management issues.
* At this later date SXM will be even less in a position to reject Dutch demands.
Robbie Ferron
