Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 44A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...29.5N 79.6W

ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA

ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet FL to Surf City NC

 

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...

* North of Surf City NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads

* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

 

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

* North of Savannah River to Surf City NC

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

* North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border

* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Sebastian Inlet FL to the Volusia/Brevard County FL line

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA

* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

 

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest or north-northwest motion is expected through this morning. A turn toward the north is forecast by this evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina

and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

 

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days. However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The NOAA automated station at St. Augustine Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

 

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND: Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the Georgia coast later this morning.

 

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida today. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with

hurricane conditions by tonight.

 

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

 

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft

Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft

Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft

Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft

Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft

Sebastian Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft

Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

 

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close

the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast

office.

 

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

 

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

 

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

 

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate Georgia coast and the coastal Carolinas today into Thursday.