Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 24A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

800 AM AST Fri Aug 30 2019

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...24.2N 69.4W

ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

 

None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Northwestern Bahamas

 

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

 

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the progress of Dorian.

 

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 69.4 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through today. A slower west-northwestward to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue through

the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today, approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

 

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula through the weekend.

 

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km).

 

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Air Force reconnaissance plane was 972 mb (28.70 inches).

 

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday night or Sunday morning.

 

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

 

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

 

Northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast United States...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

 

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

 

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

 

Please consult products from your local weather office.