Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM AST Wed Aug 28 2019
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Puerto Plata
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 63.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will pass over or near the U.S.and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today. Dorian is then forecast to move to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, and near or to the east of the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected today, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Although weakening is possible after Dorian moves across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the storm is forecast to strengthen late this week and this weekend while passing near or to the east of the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations:
Western Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Kitts to Anguilla...1 to 4 inches.
Southern and Eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Northwestern Puerto Rico...1 to 4 inches.
Haiti and Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches
Southern Bahamas...1 to 4 inches.
Northern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches.
Florida Peninsula...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches.
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands today.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the British Virgin Islands today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are gradually subsiding in the Lesser Antilles. Swells are expected to increase later this morning across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.