NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of disturbed weather centered a couple of hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands has become a little better organized since yesterday, but there are no indications of a closed circulation. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable for development by the weekend, but dry air aloft could limit additional development of the thunderstorm activity. This makes the overall environment only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation. The disturbance is expected to move northwestward today, then northward over the weekend across the western Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

2. A weak and elongated area of low pressure just off the east coast of Florida is accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from southern Florida northeastward across the southwestern Atlantic. Upper-level winds are not favorable for development but this system could still produce locally heavy rains to portions of the Florida peninsula as it moves northward during the next day or two.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Avila

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