It appears the first potential threat to the local area of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season will not materialise. Indications up to last night were that Tropical Storm Dorian will pass some 200 miles to the South early Wednesday.
That should be a safe distance, because tropical-storm-force winds extended outward 35 miles from the centre. What’s more, the latest forecast track suggests the system won’t become a hurricane until well into the Caribbean Sea and not while approaching the island chain as predicted earlier.
That all seems relatively good news, but a word of caution is nevertheless in order. Some strengthening was still foreseen along with a turn from due West to West-Northwest starting today that – if more pronounced than expected – could conceivably bring the disturbance closer.
Recent experience has shown that despite all technological advances these forecasts remain tricky. Significant variations in forward speed, direction as well as windspeed are not uncommon.
The smart money is therefore on closely monitoring this system while in the region and stopping doing so only after it has moved well away. The authorities are obviously doing just that and have already scheduled a follow-up meeting on Tuesday afternoon to take to take stock of the situation at that time.
So, although the saying “so far so good” applies in this case, don’t be caught off-guard.